29 Jul 2018

2018/19 Premier League football predictions

A new football season beckons, rising in a vista of hope, only to be crushed by the jackboot of despondency. Well, if you're an Everton fan at any rate. Actually, the hope is a little less ecstatic than this time last year, so at least the onset of despondency will be easier to take. Pass the happy pills, nurse, I'm going in...

2018/19 will see more insane transfer prices and obscene wages for the top players, while my local team Northampton Town teeters on the verge of collapse, stymied by allegedly corrupt former owners and and a brazenly incompetent local council, the latest owner is thiscloseto walking away in frustration. Ho-hum.

Anyway, this time of year Phil and I make fools of ourselves with our annual predictions. His bollocks can be found after my bollocks. Last season I was spectacularly wide of the mark, reckoning that Chelsea would retain their title! So, settle in for more hilariously myopic crystal ball gazing...

Arsenal: Unai Emery sounds abrasive and vaguely anal. I know or care little about what the Arse have been up to this close season. They have become the West Brom of the top half of the table, consistent, occasionally entertaining, but completely predictable. OK, West Brom aren't in the PL any more, but yer know worramean?! Expect a cup win, and little change in their league position.

AFC Bournemouth: Eddie Howe - a lot of Evertonians wanted him as Martinez' and then Koeman's replacement, and he had to be a better bet than Fat Sam, eh? The question is how long can he and his team keep it up? I reckon this time round they will need the football equivalent of a packet of blue pills to stay up. If Howe has been poached by Xmas, then expect a relegation battle which they might lose. Otherwise, a relegation battle they might win.

Brighton & Hove Albion: Quite near Bournemouth, but not as good. Straight back down again.

Burnley: Sean Dyche looks like a low achieving pugilist. His bunch of scrappers will be in a battle for 7th/8th with my lot. We're quite flaky, so I expect to lose, but the dreaded burden of hope makes me predict otherwise.

Cardiff City: Hail the return of Colin Wanker! What were his parents Dan Bhoj and Rosi Ticl thinking? At least they're back to playing in blue. Another club with a barking and seemingly clueless foreign owner. The bottom half of the PL is full of relegation candidates with nowt between them, and this lot are one of them.

Chelsea: By the time you read this they might have sold Courtois to Real Madrid and bought Pickford from us. Even though Man City epitomise the unlevel playing field of modern football, somehow, it's still Chelsea everyone hates. If they buy Pickford I hope they implode under a huge tax fraud case involving the Russian mafia, and sex trafficking, the utter utter bastards. If not...meh...6th

Crystal Palace: Woy did quite well with them last time. If they sell Zaha to Spurs or anyone else, as is likely, they could be in big trouble, otherwise solid upper mid-table.

Fulham: This flaky bunch of west Lahndan chancers have an owner even madder than Vincent Tan, and even more unlikable than Ambramovich. Buy Wembley?! Wtf?! For that alone they deserve to fail, badly.

Huddersfield Town: I know absolutely nowt about this lot. Oh yeah...David Wagner, a sort of saner version of Klopp. Will probably win the title. Or finish bottom. In that case, 17th.

Liverpool: It's their year! Unfortunately this time a lot of pundits and journos agree with the fans' annual deluded nonsense, and sadly they might just be right. Added to that this may be Klopp's last chance before he gets poached by Bayern Munich. On the other hand, Citeh could win it in their sleep at the moment, so 2nd, probably...hopefully.

Leicester City: Their fans still haven't stopped smiling, and who can blame them? Can't see anything vastly different from last season to be honest. Then again, Vardy isn't getting any younger and they've lost Mahrez, so this could be the start of a slow slide back down the table. That prediction probably means they'll win it again.

Manchester City: Money, money, money, it's a rich man's world. 1st, obviously.

Manchester Utd: By some distance, the dullest team in the top six. Even when he was winning stuff with Chelsea, Maureen had the demeanour of a bloke who hates his job, now he just looks like someone who can't wait to retire. I know the feeling. Wake me up before you go go, Maureen.

Newcastle Utd: There is a sizeable minority of Everton fans who, every time we change mangers recently want the FSW as our boss. They can fuck right off, have they no memory? Anyway, like Phil said, how is he still at Newcastle? Come to that how is that cockney sportswear spiv still their owner? More mid-table fodder, unless Benitez finally does get poached, in which case, yet another relegation prospect.

Southampton: Meh...wherever they finish, it will be next to Newcastle in the table.

Tottenham Hotspur: They've just played in virtually every game in the World Cup so they'll be asleep for a few weeks, and then disorientated by their move 50 yards down the road. Expect Harry Hotspur to get lost, looking for the new way in, not being the sharpest pin in the box. Like Phil I thought Wemberlee would be their undoing last season, but I was wrong, as per normal. For the first time I can remember, Spuds have a resilience about them, and actually don't look flaky. Except when they play Chelsea, obviously. Will lose to Chelsea twice, but slug it out with Liverpool for 2nd, and hopefully win, but I doubt it somehow. Third.

Watford: My dad's team, so I've always had a soft spot for them. Right now they are an advert for how not to run a football club. Will struggle, badly.

West Ham Utd: A horrible team, led by a likeable wily old fox. Unlike Spurs, the wide open spaces of their new ground is causing them big problems, and probably still will this time. Mid table fodder.

Wolverhampton Wanderers: I used to like the 70s Wolves starring Derek Dougan, and their weirdly designed main stand. I know nothing about them now, nor does anyone else it seems. Therefore, they will do best of all the promoted teams. Mid table.

Everton: Like all clubs we have a sizeable number of idiots in our fanbase. This time, they wanted Marco Silva sacked for losing a couple of pre-season friendlies with our team of misfiring misfits, plus Richarlison. These people are so short sighted they probably hold each other's dicks in the loos at Goodison and don't notice.

Silva wasn't my first choice, but he's got my support as he has of any fan with two braincells to spark off. A bit of an unknown quantity he's not been at any club long enough to really judge, so we'll see. The best signing we've made as I write this on 29th July, is Marcel Brands as director of football from PSV, a bloke who so far has said all the right things, and in Richarlison bought someone who may be able to change a game. However what we really need is a centre back to partner Keane, who will be a great footballing defender, given the same partner for more than one game in a row, and a left back. Jags and Baines are both getting well past their sell bys, and Williams is just fucking awful. I suspect we can't give him away, so perhaps it's best to have him shot and turned into glue to hold Woodison Park together for another year while we wait for the mythical new ground to start appearing, mirage-like at Bramley Dock. I won't be holding my breath.

It will take three or four transfer windows to sort our mess out, so yet another forgettable season beckons. Frankly, all I want this year is to avoid relegation and win a cup, as it will be 24 long years since we last won a pot at the end of this coming season!

Final table:
Man City
Liverpool
Tottenham
Arsenal
Chelsea
Man Utd
Everton
Burnley
Crystal Palace 
Leicester
Wolves
Newcastle
Southampton
West Ham
Bournemouth
Fulham
Huddersfield
Watford
Brighton
Cardiff

FA Cup: Arsenal
League Cup: Everton (sigh...)
Chumps League: Boris Johnson
Cobblers: Last day survival, both in a footballing and fiscal sense 
First managerial casualty: Whoever's in charge at Watford
..................................................................................................

...and here's me good mate Phil's take on this strange game of no chance:

Football, eh? Fuck me we could all do with a break from it...

For well over 10 years, Roger and I have done our annual Premier League forecast. I spent an hour looking at previous predictions and have to declare that we've always been better than 60% correct, with one or two notable embarrassments. Leicester to narrowly escape relegation the year they won it. QPR to be mid-table every time they got back in the top flight. Both were far more crazy than the seemingly mad forecast that Spurs would win the league (they finished 2nd) or that Everton would win the League Cup almost every year (they never have).

This year we are blessed with a Premier League without either West Brom or Stoke City who both of us have wished to be relegated for yonks (yet I don't recall either of us forecasting their demise the year they went down). There are more obvious candidates for the bottom five than the top five, but as last season proved, promoted teams are no longer the most vulnerable.

There is also the simple fact that with the exception of a few clubs, there's barely been any transfer business of note, which means a lot could change in the next 10 days, although quite how much immediate impact any new signing is going to have is negligible now.

Here are my predictions for the coming season; Roger's will either follow mine or be before mine, depending on which blog this is posted on.

Arsenal: Like Arsene Wenger, Unai Emery sounds like some vaguely bottom related ailment. The former PSG manager inherits a stagnant team needing something new to focus on. Another season in Thursday night hell will do them no favours and it's whether they have enough quality players to sustain a challenge for the top 4 that is of the biggest concern. Emery won't make many friends but he won't do bad enough to get sacked. They will take all cup competitions seriously as their only real silverware chances.

Bournemouth: Is Eddie Howe the new Messiah? Well, he has more technical nous than Gareth Waistcoatgate. The problem is Bournemouth are punching above their weight and all they can realistically hope for is a campaign where they're never too close to the drop. Tough season where they need some of their 'investments' to stand up to their potential.

Brighton: In an alternative reality Chris Hughton eventually becomes the manager of Tottenham. In our reality this is unlikely to happen despite him being an excellent and under rated manager. This season he's going to need a lot of grit and determination from his players because, quite simply 18 other teams have more quality.

Burnley: It's the Europa League wot did it for them. How Sean Dyche hasn't been coaxed by a 'bigger' club is a mystery, apart from the fact he just doesn't fit the modern manager role. He's a modern-day Sam Allardyce and the chances are he'd fail at another club and his stock as a tactician would fall. Burnley will be happy with group stages of Europa, mid table and a cup semi - they might get them all.

Cardiff: Does the anagram of Colin Wanker have it in him, at his age, to be a proper Premier league manager or will the Welshmen crash and burn, again? I can't see them putting up a fight. The Spaniard who was at Swansea and Sheffield Wednesday will be in by Christmas.

Chelsea: The last time they had a new Italian manager I said they'd finish 6th and they won it. Like Arsenal, they are a club in a decline cycle, the new manager will be good for moral and form, but ultimately they won't be a team like others and will struggle again to break the top 4.

Crystal Palace: Here's a weird one. Based on form and other irrelevant statistics, some computer came up with a prediction that Palace were capable of a top three finish. I'm not agreeing with that computer, but I get the feeling this team under a rejuvenated Woy Hodgson won't be struggling this season.

Everton: Will the new manager turn this usually guaranteed top 7 team into a top 7 team? Will they win the League Cup? One of the season's mysteries because a) is the manager actually any good? b) do they have the players and have they bought anyone in that can change games? And c) Even if they can are they better than at least three of the six sides above them? Sorry Rog, but no.

Fulham: Puzzle time. This season's QPR? I've always had a soft spot for Fulham; nice ground, mad owners, some great players and with a manager who oversees a game as madly as he played, you can expect the unexpected from this team. Watch Ryan Sessignan; he'll be worth a lot of money soon.

Huddersfield: Seriously doomed without better quality. I can't see them having the resilience of Bournemouth and even though their manager is a really capable future star, this will likely be their EPL exit.

Liverpool: Say it with hilarity in your voice - this lot are the proper pundits' tip to beat Man City to the title. On paper they've filled in most of the cracks by doing a lot of their transfer work while others were pondering the world cup. Even more so than when the FSW or Brenda were in charge, there is an expectation this could be the year Klopp beats Pep, but I feel Liverpool, like Spurs, have forgotten how to win the most important matches and most fans of most other clubs would simply be excited at the prospect of a great season. However, the weight of Liverpool fans' is often too much for the players to burden themselves with.

Leicester: Obviously, they'll never hit the heights they did, but now they are also no longer regarded as relegation fodder. This is a big season for the former Champions and they will want a top 7 finish to maybe give them some more Europe the season after next. This is a club with some money and you can't fault their ambition, but losing Mahrez, their most creative player, will need to be addressed.

Man City: Honestly? You can't really see anyone else really challenging. If Citeh play to 75% of what they did last season they'd still win the league, despite whatever improvements there have been elsewhere. I'd love to see Pep throw all of the money and grandeur away and take on the job of managing Northampton Town for 3 years on £100k a year transfer budget. Then I'd acknowledge he's a brilliant manager, but while he has bottomless resources to essentially buy whomever he wants wherever it is difficult to see anyone else really giving this team a run for their money for the next three years.

Man Utd: I seriously expect this team to have moments of extreme embarrassment this season. I have a feeling that Jose won't last the course, essentially because I don't think he has the passion for it any more and he would have preferred to have managed Man U when they were very good. It is no longer a pre-requisite to play for Man U if you're a world class footballer and only this team's quality will ensure they get anything from what could be Mourinho's last season in football management.

Newcastle: Why is the FSW still there? With no money and an owner who actually is a Spurs fan, I can't see Newcastle being anything other than the new Stoke. They have two or three good players who will want a better season or they'll be at bigger clubs in January.

Southampton:  The new West Brom? Mark Hughes is competent at best and is one of that list of managers who always get offered jobs when they get sacked for being shit at their last job. I wish I could be a football manager for a few weeks... As for the south coast side? I expect a long tough season, slightly less fraught than last year.

Watford: Who is their manager this week? Won't finish in the top 10, this year, next year or in 2050. Have less chance of success than Elton John has of having a #1 hit while singing naked up to his groin in a sheep.

West Ham: The wife and brother-in-law's team and one I have always had a soft spot for despite Whammers' hating Spurs like we were the paedo that stole their children. I never like seeing them get relegated, but I hate playing them and they're often more up for beating Spurs than the Arse. Pellegrino is a remarkably astute signing, but this is going to be a year of general rebuilding.

Wolves: This season's proper mystery. They have a manager reasonably unknown but sounding like a fancy Spanish dish in a Michelin-starred restaurant who appears to love the Portuguese (cos he is one) and have turned Wolves into a real dark horse for complete survival. Many people of my age and older will look at Wolves in the top flight and think that an order has been restored, but I've always disliked the team, so I want to change my mind.

Tottenham: I was so wrong about playing at Wembley and I was so glad I was wrong. I really thought Spurs would struggle to finish in the top 6 with Wembley as a millstone and another tough Champions League campaign. In September, Spurs move into New White Hart Lane (and play Liverpool, so a nice easy start) before that they have three away matches and a 'home' game at Wembley against Fulham. It's a bitty start, just the kind of thing a team that notoriously screws up any chance they have of genuinely challenging for a title by having crap starts to the season. Plus, you have to factor in the unbelievably massive work that Daniel Levy has done in the transfer market. So far, with August 1st just round the corner (and a deadline that closes on the 9th), Spurs have signed exactly 0 players.They have at least 13 players still on holiday after world cup exertions and while it gives the B team a chance to shine, Spurs could have a bench that resembles the local nursery school for August.
The 'Spurs' fan in me, looks at all the inactivity, all the lack of real depth, at the new shiny stadium that needs to be a fortress and all the seemingly hollow bullshit from the manager about concluding business early and getting the squad right and I really worry about this season. However, the optimist in me is weighing up the factors against the team last season and how well they did considering and I have to think that Spurs are no longer a team that buckles at adversity. For the fringe players there has never been a better opportunity (even if these include Sissoko, Llorente and a few others who you'd be hard pressed to get excited about) to establish themselves over the 1st team. I expect a high finish more because of others failure to be consistent rather than us ever really challenging.

Final Table:
Man City
Tottenham
Liverpool
Chelsea
Man U
Arsenal
Crystal Palace
Everton
Leicester
Fulham
Burnley
West Ham
Wolves
Newcastle
Southampton
Bournemouth
Watford
Brighton
Cardiff
Huddersfield

FA Cup winners: Man City
League Cup winners: Liverpool
European Champions League winners: Sligo Rovers
Cobblers?: Play-offs
1st Manager sacked: Claude Puel